- Connecticut and Maryland are considering comprehensive flavor bans in 2026-2027 sessions. If passed, the number of flavor ban states would increase to 8.
- Michigan is considering disposable-specific restrictions, which would create a new sub-category of bans.
- More PMTA directories are likely. Industry analysts predict 20+ states will have active directories by end of 2026.
- FDA enforcement discretion could tighten. The May 2026 softening was not a permanent guarantee. A future administration could resume aggressive enforcement against non-PMTA products.
- Origin bans could spread. If Texas SB 2024 survives legal challenges, other states may copy the model.
- The 2026 Farm Bill (November 12, 2026 deadline) includes a total-THC definition that could impact CBD/hemp-derived vape products, adding another regulatory layer.
What to watch: The trend is clear — more states are adopting PMTA directories rather than explicit flavor bans. This is easier to pass legislatively (it sounds like "product safety" rather than "prohibition") and has the same practical effect. Expect 20+ states with directories by 2027. The disposable vape market as we know it in 2026 may not exist in its current form by 2028.
