If menthol helps more smokers switch, what happens when you ban it? Recent evidence from Canada offers a stark warning.

A 2026 economic analysis of Canadian provinces that implemented strict vape flavor bans between 2018 and 2023 found that cigarette sales rose by nearly 10% on average. Flavored vape sales collapsed almost entirely once restrictions took effect, but a substantial share of consumers returned to combustible cigarettes rather than switching to tobacco-flavored vaping products.

This is consistent with multiple US studies showing that when flavored vaping products are restricted, reductions in vaping are often offset by increases in cigarette smoking. The pattern is clear: demand for nicotine does not disappear — it shifts toward more dangerous products.

Meanwhile, Germany proposed a sweeping menthol vape ban in February 2026 despite acknowledging "no clear data showing menthol vaping leads to greater nicotine absorption or higher health risks." Harm reduction experts warned the ban could undermine smoking cessation in a country where smoking rates remain stubbornly high.