- Expanded product directories: Tennessee's directory enforcement begins January 1, 2027. Expect more states to adopt directory models as the federal government signals enforcement support.
- FDA flavored ENDS draft guidance: Published in March 2026 (FDA-2026-D-1817), the draft outlines a risk-proportionate framework for flavored product applications with device-level youth access restrictions. If finalized, this could open a path for more authorized flavored products.
- Increased counterfeit risk: As border enforcement tightens, supply chains for popular brands will be disrupted, creating opportunities for counterfeiters. Consumers should be vigilant — see our authentication guide for red flags.
- Price increases: Reduced supply of unauthorized products will likely push prices up in low-restriction states, potentially narrowing the cost gap between authorized and unauthorized options.
- State-level escalation: Expect more states to move from the low-restriction model to product directory or flavor-ban models as federal enforcement pressure increases.
- Glas authorization impact: The first-ever fruit-flavored PMTA authorization (Glas Gold/Sapphire, May 2026) could signal a shift in FDA's approach to flavored products, but the age-gating technology requirement may be a high bar for other manufacturers.
What to watch: The FDA's flavored ENDS draft guidance is the single most important document to monitor. If finalized as a binding rule, it could fundamentally reshape which flavored products reach the market. Additionally, watch for Virginia's new retailer permit requirement (effective October 1, 2026) and Tennessee's directory enforcement (January 1, 2027) as bellwethers for state-level escalation.
